Can Canada's Election Debate Shake Up The Betting Odds?

So-called "knockout blows" are rare in Canadian politics, however there is an opportunity for one to land in tonight's English-language leaders' argument that might shock the polls and betting odds.


- Tonight's English-language debate is a chance for among Canada's politicians to score points with voters.
- The chances and surveys are presently forecasting a Liberal win, a huge shift from what they were recommending late in 2015.
- There's likely more wagering occurring on this Canadian election than any other in history.


The debate arranged for 7 p.m. ET will provide a possibility for Liberal leader Mark Carney to solidify his party's lead, for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to turn the tables, and for the leaders of the Bloc Québécois and NDP to attempt to catch the eyes of voters.


However, as things presently stand in the polls and on the oddsboard, Canada's 45th federal general election is looking like it's the Liberals' to lose.


Here's where the Canadian election odds stand @BET99ON ahead of tonight's English-language argument for the federal celebration leaders.


Liberals still leading, Conservatives still routing, and everyone else still wayyyy back: pic.twitter.com/CAAsQZV1Mm


At Bet99 in Ontario on Thursday early morning, the Liberals were still significant favourites to win the election, at chances of -310. At a suggested likelihood of 75.61%, those chances are suggesting what the polls have actually been recommending: that the Liberals are ahead with voters at the minute.


The Conservatives, on the other hand, were priced as +220 underdogs and all other celebrations at +7,500. Similar chances exist at other Ontario-regulated sportsbooks, with the Liberals -405 to form federal government at FanDuel on Thursday morning and the Conservatives sitting at +250.


It's been a steady climb for the Liberals throughout the project in both the polls and Canadian election odds. On April 8, the Liberals were priced as -250 favourites at Bet99, while the Conservatives were +175 underdogs.


There is likely more betting taking place on this Canadian election than any previous journey to the surveys. And there have actually been some big swings in the chances already.


The resignation of previous prime minister Justin previously this year and President Donald Trump's remarks about Canada ending up being the 51st U.S. state have been catalysts for a renewal in Liberal appeal. The Grits had been underdogs of +500 or more back in December at some sportsbooks, while the Conservatives were favourites of -900 or much shorter.


Tonight's dispute could be another driver for a shift in the chances, as it has been a couple of times in the past. (A French-language debate was held on Wednesday, and earlier than initially planned so as not to conflict with an essential Montreal Canadiens game.)


'You had an option, sir'


Perhaps the most noteworthy example of a huge dispute moment took place more than 40 years back. That was when Progressive Conservative leader Brian Mulroney struck then-Liberal Prime Minister John Turner with a stunner during the 1984 federal leaders' argument.


Former prime minister Pierre Trudeau had made a raft of consultations on the method out the door, and Mulroney declared to Turner that "You had an option, sir" to say no to those moves.


After Turner's lacklustre reaction, Mulroney and the Conservatives travelled to a huge win in the election over the currently teetering Liberals.


Will we see something similar tonight? Probably not, however election gamblers may wish to keep an eye on the debate all the same.