March Madness Trends: 3 To Trust And 3 To Avoid
Most seed-versus-seed results ought to be taken with a grain of salt (and a shot of tequila followed by a lime wedge), however there's no rejecting the No. 12 versus No. 5 March Madness trend. Despite the randomness, this pairing continues to produce earnings for those selecting the No. 12 seed - at least versus the spread.
Since 2012, No. 5 seeds are 27-21 SU versus No. 12 seeds and 20-27-1 ATS in those opening-round matches. Over the past 5 Big Dances (remembering we didn't have one in 2020), No. 5 seeds are 12-8 SU and 9-11 ATS, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the 2024 competition Round of 64.
Don't just blindly bank on No. 12 seeds over No. 5's but treat this pattern with regard - like dealing with a cobra.
Three trends to fade
There's a surplus of shallow March Madness wagering patterns out there that you need to never blindly route when positioning your bets or constructing your bracket. Here's the pointer of the iceberg.
Conference trends
Certain conferences will have more powerful historical ATS in the NCAA Tournament, but the groups, challengers, gamers and spreads all differ when developing out this bull crap. The general strength of conferences sways every year, so don't go chasing the SEC groups or fading ACC schools based exclusively on those conferences' counts versus the spread.
Seed vs. Seed patterns
We have actually singled out the No. 5-versus-No. 12 trend, which destroyed a great deal of "smart" brackets with all 4 No. 5 seeds advancing in 2023. Bettors ought to tread gently with that details and more so with other patterns around seed-versus-seed. The level of parity in college basketball seems to be broadening by the season, so do not base a bet solely on the Selection Committee's seeding.
Point spread and Over/Under patterns
Brace yourself for some doozies when it concerns any historical NCAA Tournament trends powered by spreads and totals. You'll get alluring patterns around the Round of 64 underdogs in between a specific point range and Over/Under tips based upon previous overalls from certain seeding matches.
As discussed, some trends can lead you down the ideal handicapping road however a number of these take you and your bankroll to a dead end. Be skeptical of these trends and look into the past outcomes that powered them. If you can, attempt to spot a narrative behind them that could roll over into this year's March Madness field.
How sportsbooks treat March Madness patterns
Perhaps the best method to assess how beneficial March Madness wagering patterns are is to take a look at the folks setting the chances for March Madness.
If you ask an oddsmaker if they're factoring in the past against the spread (ATS) success of No. 15 seeds into this year's No. 2-versus-No. 15 matchup odds, they'll likely laugh in your face. Bookmakers mainly neglect historical trends, particularly in college sports, as gamer and ability turnover varies significantly from year-to-year.
Oddsmakers base their numbers on existing kind and information from that season instead of historic hoo-ha pulling from random teams with random gamers led by random coaches from random conferences playing at random sites. You get the concept.
The decision on March Madness trends
Basketball bettors should be careful of many March Madness trends. While wagering on them blindly is bonkers, there are lessons to be gained from evaluating them and detecting past patterns.
Veteran handicapper Marc Lawrence has a huge sports wagering database that pumps out numerous March Madness betting patterns every year. And while he does not jump on board all those with his NCAA Tournament bets, he sees the value in what he calls "anticipating expectancy".
"There is a factor that Winston Churchill said, 'Those who fail to learn from history are destined duplicate it,'" Lawrence states. "By learning failures and successes from the past and using skills from today, we progress, well-rounded handicappers. Yes, groups change, but methods and patterns are highly predictive ... By depending on past patterns, we can much better expect span."
March Madness wagering sites
March Madness is an incredibly popular season for sports gamblers and among the busiest for online sportsbooks. With every betting site offering March Madness chances, it is essential to know which are safe and secure, use a vast array of banking options, and offer you a load of markets for each game. Check out the best March Madness betting sites in your area, evaluated by Covers' group of experienced specialists.