Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which largely describes why the Oilers are small favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you wish to look at this pie, you might make an argument that either group might be preferred," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is certainly playing a part. You're just playing the percentages. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that essential 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to end up being the first Canadian team because Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven video games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the cash has can be found in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media during a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


"I would expect that to most likely continue," Cipollini stated. "I believe we'll probably take a little more Oilers money even if of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I think we will end up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not purchase the Oilers ought to be preferred.


"You don't see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," . "When you do, you constantly ask yourself the obvious question: Are these 2 teams better or even worse than they were last year? I 'd state Florida is a better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) a little even worse than last year, especially when you take a look at no Zach Hyman readily available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I offer the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter group than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain became the 2nd skater and 6th player to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing group.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, giving him an opportunity to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to give McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred since of the points scored and there's currently a precedent that they could give it to him here, but that's something to watch as the games start. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't actually standing out ... there is a real life where it might be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has long been seen as a weakness on the roster, a credibility that seemed sealed when he was benched 2 video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant reason Edmonton is still playing. He has actually permitted one or zero goals in five of his previous 7 starts, three of them nothings.


Another terrific run in the web could put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have told you this was sustainable before," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd successive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness might finally capture up to the Panthers. Or they might simply be on a heating unit having won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve said the metrics indicate a Panthers champion and though either outcome would be fine with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be much better.


"I don ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve stated. "In 2015 was a bit harder since more individuals liked Florida, however individuals are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently could go in any case and Oklahoma City is greatly favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I think it assists the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve said. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has an opportunity to go six or 7 video games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press by means of AP, File)